"We are blessed to live in a place where the sun hits, in the north, like few places in the world," he said. "The winds of Patagonia are incredible. We have rivers to generate hydroelectric energy and agricultural activities that are sources of biogas and biomass."
The country is developing renewable energies later than many other markets, including neighboring Brazil, Chile and Uruguay. Economic and financial problems stemming from a $100 billion sovereign debt default in 2001 froze Argentina out of international financial markets until 2016, when Macri ended the default.
The return to global markets has allowed companies to once again raise financing, and more than $5.5 billion has been earmarked for the renewable energy sector over the past two years.
As the country increases renewable capacity, the Energy Ministry expects the share of fossil fuel-fired power to shrink to between 31% and 38% of total capacity in 2030 from 66% in 2016, according to a recent forecast.
At the same time, the government wants to ramp up the use of gas as a replacement for liquids for power generation, the forecast shows. Fuel oil is to be phased out in 2022, and diesel consumption gradually reduced and limited to times of peak winter demand.
LARGE RESOURCES
To reach the 20% target, around 10,000 MW must be built, said Juan Pedro Aguero, project developer at the Argentine Wind Power Association.
"It's ambitious, but it's feasible because of the large resources," he said.
In terms of wind, 70% of the country's onshore territory has winds that can be harnessed for power, at 7 meters per second, he said. Patagonia is the standout with winds of 9 to 12 meters per second, but other regions also boast potential, including the Atlantic Coast of Buenos Aires province, which has similar winds to the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in Europe, where ample capacity is installed, he added.
"The resource is so big and widespread that there will always be projects that can be carried out," he said.
Aguero estimates the expansion of renewable energy capacity will continue over the next 10 years at least, helping to reduce not only imports of electricity but also power generation fuels.
Argentina has been running an energy deficit since 2011, as low investment, rising demand and maturing oil and gas reserves hit the country with shortages.
Gas imports reached a record 31.9 million cu m/d in 2017, about 60% from Bolivia and 40% as LNG, up 7.8% from 29.6 million cu m/d in 2016, according to Energy Ministry data. The country relies on gas to meet about 50% of its energy demand.
TRIMMING IMPORTS
The push into renewables along with the incipient development of unconventional gas resources in plays like Vaca Muerta should gradually reduce gas imports to times of peak winter demand between June and August.
"We are optimistic about having a surplus of gas in the [December to February] summer of 2018-19," said Mauro Chavez, senior research analyst of Latin America gas and power at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy. "In the future, Argentina will be able to replace Bolivian gas and LNG imports in the winter months."
Roberto Carnicer, a director of Hub Energia, an energy research firm in Buenos Aires, said gas demand by the power sector will also decline as an estimated 3,000 MW of more efficient and productive thermal power plants come online in 2020 and 2021, burning less gas to generate power.
"Peak demand, however, will be met by imports until local production increases enough to be a substitute," he said.
The Energy Ministry forecasts that the development of Vaca Muerta and other unconventional plays could increase total gas production to as much as 200 million cu m/d in 2030 from 122 million cu m/d in 2017, allowing the country to export the surplus. Gas demand is expected to grow to as much as 147.4 million cu m/d in 2030 from 118.6 million cu m/d, according to the forecast.
--Charles Newbery, newsdesk@spglobal.com, james.bambino@spglobal.com
--Edited by Jason Lindquist, newsdesk@spglobal.com
Fuente: https://www.platts.com/
Publicar un comentario